The first half of 2025 has delivered a mixed bag for the Kerikeri property market. After a strong start in Q1, the second quarter slowed down, with fewer sales and longer selling times. But it is not all bad news. There are signs of a market that is stabilising, along with a shift in buyer behaviour and some positive indicators for sellers with the right properties.
Here is a closer look at how Q2 compares with Q1 in Kerikeri and the surrounding areas.
📊 Q2 Compared with Q1 at a Glance
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales | 99 | 125 | Decrease of 21 percent |
| Lowest Sale | $77,500 (section) | $110,000 (section) | Decrease of around 30 percent |
| Highest Sale | $3,150,000 | $18,089,760 (dairy farm) | Significant drop in top-end sales |
| Average Sale Price | $806,961 | $1,023,791 | Decrease of around 21 percent |
| Average Days to Sell | 192 days | 177 days | Increase of around 8 percent |
| Median Days to Sell | 125 days | 96 days | Increase of around 30 percent |
What We Are Seeing
The market softened in Q2 after a particularly active Q1. The high average sale price in Q1 was boosted by a one-off dairy farm sale at over $18 million, which pushed up the quarter’s figures. Taking that out of the equation, the trend appears more stable.
We are also seeing homes taking longer to sell. This points to a more cautious buyer pool, which lines up with national data showing that most active buyers are currently first-home buyers or people seeking fully renovated, move-in ready homes.
What’s Happening Across Northland
Looking at the wider Northland region and national figures, the outlook is quietly positive.
- QV’s June report shows property values in Northland rose by 2.2 percent in Q2, bringing the average value to $738,936. This is just 0.9 percent below where it was a year ago.
- A recent CBRE report found that 56 percent of residential valuers describe demand as moderate, while 42 percent describe it as soft. Encouragingly, more than 90 percent say there is strong interest from first-home buyers.
- Earlier in the year, REINZ reported that Northland led the country in annual sales growth, suggesting that once the right properties hit the market, buyer interest is there.
Interest Rates and the Bigger Picture
The Official Cash Rate (OCR) was held steady at 3.25 percent in early July. However, market expectations suggest there may be one more cut this year, likely taking the OCR to around 2.5 to 2.75 percent.
With inflation trending down and business confidence improving, there is a good chance that lower mortgage rates will be on the horizon. If that happens, we may see more buyers returning to the market later this year.
What to Watch in Q3
- Sales activity – will volumes increase, or is the market still finding its footing?
- Buyer behaviour – renovated and mid-range homes are getting the most interest right now.
- Time on market – sellers may need to be more patient, or consider sharper pricing early on to generate interest.
Final Thoughts
The Kerikeri market is clearly going through a transitional phase. Q2 was slower than Q1, but the fundamentals remain stable. For sellers with tidy, well-presented homes, there is still strong interest from buyers. And with interest rate cuts likely on the way, the second half of 2025 may bring new momentum.
If you would like to know what this means for your own property, feel free to reach out. I am happy to provide a no-pressure appraisal or simply talk you through the latest market conditions.
—
Matt
Russell Road Property
📍 Serving Kerikeri and Surrounds
📞 027 432 1031 | 📧 matt@russellroad.co.nz | 🌐 russellroad.co.nz